New studies paint disturbing picture for area

By SCOTT McMILLION, Chronicle Staff Writer

Two studies released this week paint disturbing futures for the Bozeman and Livingston areas, for Montana and for other parts of the West.

One study looks at how global warming is affecting the Rocky Mountains and predicts all sorts of water problems. And since this is the West, that means social and political problems.

The other study looks at development patterns and sees a future of more sprawl and less open space, more roads and less abundant wildlife -- unless people break with long-standing traditions and start regulating themselves and their neighbors.

The two trends -- land use and climate change -- seem increasingly connected.

"They're obviously related," said Andy Hansen, an ecologist at Montana State University who worked on the sprawl story.

Climate and soils are "a huge factor" in where people choose to live, he said.

"Certainly an effect of milder weather around Montana is that more people are willing to move here," said Steven Running, a climate scientist at the University of Montana.

He provided data for the climate study, released Wednesday by a Colorado group called the Rocky Mountain Climate Organization, which concluded, that the region is "seeing the effects of global warming today."

The study analyzed government weather records and found that the upper Missouri River has had below-average snowpack for 14 of the past 16 years.

Plus, winter temperatures are rising, which affects runoff. On average, snowpack is leaving the mountains three weeks earlier than it was 50 years ago, Running said, and that leads to all sorts of problems.

Less water later in the summer means trouble for fish, especially rare species like grayling and cutthroat trout. That complicates ongoing arguments and lawsuits over who gets the water. Fish or farmers? Cities or hydropower dams? Recreation or downstream barges?

Those battles won't be made simpler by the arrival of more people, all of them wanting water for consumption, irrigation and recreation.

Montana is one of the least populated states, but its western section is filling up fast as two big factors that once limited population growth -- isolation and harsh winters -- become less daunting.

Modern airports and communications technology have whittled at the isolation for years.

Now, global warming is taking some of the bite out of winter.

"I've been waiting for an old-fashioned winter for 10 years," Running said. "And I'm still waiting."

The development patterns study, done by the Sonoran Institute, a social and environmental policy group based in Bozeman and Tucson, found the population of the 20 counties surrounding Yellowstone National Park grew by 62 percent between 1970 and 2000.

But the acres dedicated to residential development have exploded by 350 percent during the same time frame.

"We're building bigger houses on bigger lots and using more land than ever before," the study found.

It laid out four scenarios, showing that by 2020, the greater Yellowstone region will lose as much as 36 percent of its agricultural land and 24 percent of "privately owned natural areas" (land with no homes on it).

However, if local governments begin working together and adopt "smart growth" tools, future losses of agricultural and natural land could shrivel to about 4 percent, the study says.

But so far, few counties in the region have implemented such tools. Today, market forces and property rights concerns tend to overwhelm fears about future impacts.

Yet as Montana becomes less isolated, as winters become easier to take, development pressures are likely to grow:

€ Reductions in flows of irrigation water are likely to put further pressure on small farms -- some of them economically marginal anyway -- to sell to developers.

€ More houses means more demands for infrastructure and services. If more roads and schools are provided, it leads to more growth, the Sonoran study says.

€ Less water late in the summer means more crowding of anglers and, if current trends continue, more people willing to pay for private angling. That means more locked gates and access disputes.

€ Earlier runoff increases the risk of wildfire and threatens all those homes in the woods. Though harsh winters will arrive someday, droughts will be more severe.

The global warming phenomenon is real, said Running, a respected scientist who has studied global warming for years.

"There's just no alternative hypothesis available that's credible," he said.

He compared the Northern Rockies situation to Hurricane Katrina striking New Orleans. Experts predicted years ago what would happen, and three days before the disaster, hurricane trackers pinpointed almost exactly where Katrina would land.

"In a slow-motion way, we're in the same situation with global warming," he said. "As scientists, we're doing all we can. We're waiting for the political community to get serious."

Hansen said he hopes the sprawl study helps government and community activists get informed and get busy addressing future growth. Not all losses are inevitable, and its possible to minimize environmental losses and maximize economic growth.

"The change is coming," he said. "The challenge is to figure out how to retain the things we value about the region."

Copies of the Sonoran Institute study are on the Web at www.sonoran.org

Copies of the study about global warming impacts on the Rocky Mountains are available at www.rockymountainclimate.org

Scott McMillion is at scottm@dailychronicle.com

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